[RECAP] — Play To Earn ROI Report AMA with L2Y (19 Jan 2022)
Ethan:
Hi everyone, thank you so much for attending this AMA together with us.
I’m your lovely host, co-founder and CEO of WonderHero =)
And today we have an important guest, one that everyone will get to hear from more and more. Leo from L2Y.
Hi Leo, can you introduce yourself?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
Hello, I am Leo, Project Research Lead and Analyst at L2Y. I have been in charge of the L2Y internal research for Wonderhero.
Thank you Ethan for having me here today.
Ethan:
Thanks Leo for taking out your time for the WonderHero community today, we have so much to cover today. We are really lucky to hear directly from you, the analyst behind the WonderHero beta 3 economic report.
https://l2y.com/articles/walkthrough/WonderheroBeta3PlaytoEarnEconomicReportL2YResearch
In your perspective, how do players earn in Wonderhero?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
Well, consuming energy is the main source of $HON income. PVP is the main source of $WND income.
The Infinite War Game Mode and your Daily Assist Mode will be the main source of NFT drops.
Ethan:
Alright WonderHero community, you hear it from the main analyst yourself. do take notes on these 3 points!!!
Leo, L2Y just made a game economic report for Wonderhero, can you talk briefly about your findings in the report?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
Sure, but before I start, because we have numbers and money on the table today, let me make sure we are on the same page.
Ethan:
Oh yes please!
Leo Liu (L2Y):
The content we will be talking about today will mostly be based on the report we shared about Wonderhero’s economic system recently. The report uses data from Wonderhero Beta2 and Beta3 and therefore does not guarantee the accuracy of the data when the game goes live.
The data and game information contained herein does not suggest or imply and should not be construed, in any manner, a guarantee of future performance and/or financial investment advice.
So let’s get it started.
Ethan:
Thanks for letting the audience know, I really appreciate it.
Leo Liu (L2Y):
First, I want to point out that I was also surprised by the findings in the result of the report.
I knew Wonderhero would be a good game because it utilized a mature game system from the traditional game space and therefore, I expected it to be much more stable than new games with new in-game yield and spending mechanisms. But I didn’t expect the economic result to turn out to be an average of 2000% annual ROI.
To add a bit more detail here: on average, each brand new player can start the game fresh and earn more than $50 worth of tokens a day based on the $WND and $HON price data on Jan 13, 2021.
That’s my main finding that’s most worth mentioning.
Ethan:
Wow Leo, what you just shared, summarized the sweat and tears and countless hours that I spent with my core team on making sure the P2E part is well planned. I think this is the first time someone else mentioned this.
Now let’s talk about the details of ROI here: How is the first month’s 200% ROI calculated?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
Ah, that ROI took quite a long process to get there.
We first estimated the first month’s total player count based on the total Wonderbox available for sale before the game launch.
For each player, we expect them to own an average of 3 sets of skin and weapons which correspond to 3 wonderboxes. Then, an estimation of player spending is calculated based on the real feedback from Beta 2 and Beta 3.
With that spending data, we then calculated the total first month’s $WND reward and evenly distributed it to every player.
$HON is also calculated based on the real game data feedback from Beta 2 and Beta 3.
We calculated the average first-month player $HON income to be 4050 and also looked at Beta 4’s feedback. I would say that’s an underestimate.
Finally, add in the consideration for the In-game spending, the ROI came out to be 213%.
Ethan:
Wow, this is really detailed and it goes to show the level of thought behind this calculation. Did you or your team play the game beta to also come out with this analysis?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
We have a team dedicated to collecting In-game data for Wonderhero.
For each Beta test, we carefully compare the difference between each one and update our calculation.
Ethan:
Woo~ Most data sites just show from a data point of view, L2Y actually has a dedicated team to go onto the field to see if the data is making sense. This is the true craft of a GameFi data leader. We are so lucky to have a partner like L2Y.
ok, I’m sure lots of viewers here have the next dying question haha!
How much time do players need to spend daily to maximize earnings?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
So according to our findings, we conclude it to be 30–60 minutes early game and 3 hours in Late game if you want the full earning potential with what you have.
That’s because the game will give you an easy start. At the beginning if you have a good team, you don’t have to worry too much about in-game strategy.
But as you progress in the game, you will find monsters to become more challenging and that’s when you need to really think about your moves and the monster’s moves, so you will need to spend more time there.
But it’s also rewarding when you do that. Because the higher stage you get, the more $HON drop you will have.
Ethan:
Nice~ I think this is said more accurately than what we saw from some streamers.
It is also quite a good reflection of Farm output vs Spending cost of $HON and $WND on https://wonderhero.gitbook.io/wonderhero/wonderhero-whitepaper/farm-output-vs-spending-cost-of-hon-and-wnd
So looking at your first graph, can you explain a bit more in detail why there is a decrease in $WND earning at the beginning and why it will increase in the long run?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
It’s a supply and demand thing. As we all know, $WND has an unlocking schedule for 48 months. 27% of the total $WND supply will be unlocked linearly each month. That’s the fixed part of the reward
As the total number of players increase, the average reward per player from this part would certainly decrease.
But there is also the variable portion — In-game $WND spending.
95% of the player spending will be redistributed as Play 2 Earn Reward. But because in Early game, there isn’t a high enough $WND spending when upgrading NFT items.
This portion of the reward pool is relatively small, we estimated the total WND spent for the first month to be 50,000.
If we compare this to the monthly Play 2 Earn $WND reward — 562,500, it’s a bit insignificant.
But our spending estimation then quickly increased to 515,129 $WND in the 6th Month; and almost 2,000,000 $WND in the 12th Month because of how much late game NFT item upgrade will cost and with that, more player base will further increase the total In-game $WND Spending.
So to summarize it: Because early game $WND reward is relatively fixed, and Wonderhero player base is expected to increase quickly, during then the $WND earning will decrease.
Then because of the increase in In-game Spending, the $WND earning will increase and eventually exceed what you can earn at the beginning of the game when there are only a few people sharing such a big $WND reward pool.
Ethan:
Damn, while many data sites are asking WonderHero for data and still evaluating, L2Y is 10 STEPS ahead with this level of analysis.
So I guess the next obvious question is, which one is more profitable: Spending small and earning small or Spending big and earning big?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
That’s the thing Wonderhero players really care about. Should I spend $1000? Or just $200? I always ask myself when I play NFT games.
Ethan:
haha im sure~ we all do.
Leo Liu (L2Y):
But again, I want to remind everyone that what I am about to talk is not financial advice or a guarantee of future performance
So there is one advantage in spending small and earning small:
You can earn daily quest rewards just like everyone else.
Big whales owning all 5 star skins and weapons will earn the same daily quest reward just like everyone else.
You can also play infinite war mode (update on Beta 4 — available at player level 3) at an equal start like everyone else for NFT item rewards. https://youtu.be/_i8xC2CNGdc
But the disadvantage is also obvious, spending less means you won’t be able to progress as far as others.
In terms of reward difference in stages:
In Beta 3, for example, clearing 1–1 will give you 5 player EXP and a chance to drop somewhere around 20 $HON (I tested about 100 runs of 1–1 😆). But clearing map 4–7 will give you 40–60 $HON and 7 EXP and they both cost 1 energy.
That’s a 200% — 300% difference in terms of reward and you will only get more $HON drops when you reach further.
In addition, you will miss out on the huge PVP reward of $WND.
Rewards are given weekly and at most you can get 1000 $WND.
And on the contrary, spending big and earning big is the reverse to the other.
Ethan:
Guys, this info above is HUGE. Once you start the game, you will feel it and these points above… Will be what you will be considering. I think Leo said it better than me, so so much better. =P
Ok, I think I saw some community members asking this question earlier. Can you explain in detail how we should look at the last graph with different $HON sale rates?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
Ah Ethan, one thing I think I missed.
Ethan:
No problem, go ahead.
Leo Liu (L2Y):
If you fall behind in terms of player level as you gain different player EXP rewards at different stages, you will have a lower $HON earning cap.
I most certainly don’t want to have energy left but my $WND earning is exceeding my daily cap. That’s it.
So about the last graph..
Ethan:
Hold on a second, can you elaborate a little bit more on this? I think some users may not understand it yet.
Leo Liu (L2Y):
Ok. So at player level 1, your daily $HON earning is capped at 500.
Anything more than 500 will disappear. For each player level, you will increase this cap by 50. So a higher level equals higher earning potential. Higher stage cleared equals higher exp reward.
Thus you can have higher earning potential with the same energy spent.
Ethan:
Ah I see. So you mean you wanna make sure you spend all that energy in order to get max $WND earning.
Leo Liu (L2Y):
Of course. Always clear ALL your energy guys.
Ethan:
Great, I hope this explanation helps our audience understand better in terms of playing strategy, this is good stuff!
Let’s go to the next.
Leo Liu (L2Y):
Ya sure. About the last graph:
That’s the most important of all. Because that’s what we are really talking about today. How much return can Wonderhero Yield.
When calculating $WND return, the AVERAGE reward is independent of the spending because what everyone spends is what everyone will earn. It’s just the redistribution difference across different progressed and ranked players. So that’s not considered in our calculation
But with $HON, your earnings depend on how much you spend.
Because only when you sell them, it’s considered as a “return”.
So that’s why we divided the earnings into three different $HON spending percentages for different types of players.
And of course, the more you spend, the stronger you are in the late game and the more reward you can earn. But since no one has touched Late game yet (since all previous Beta testing lasted short). It is very hard to estimate the influence of early game investment on Late game. But from my gaming experience, it is big.
So without considering that, we calculated the pure reward in $HON that a player decides to sell to the market and concluded with the ROI as you can see in the graph.
Ethan:
Wow, that explains the graph so much clearer now. It’s such a good guide for our users to evaluate and see where they are at.
We are having this level of detailed report from L2Y even before the launch of the game, I’m sure our community are thankful for this and will wanna read more WonderHero reports from L2Y, the leader in GameFi data.
Leo, can you share the info for our users in case they want to follow L2Y to be the first to know about reports?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
So L2Y is the №1 game data platform that intends to provide users with the most current and accurate data on NFT games.
We have so much more economic reports for NFT play-to-earn games available on our website l2y.com. We also announce important events and reports on our twitter: https://twitter.com/l2y_com
We aim to help users find the best NFt games in terms of quality and most importantly, earning.
Ethan:
Do you have a community? In case they wanna join in and check things out.
Leo Liu (L2Y):
We are currently reconstructing our website and just got started in terms of community beyond Twitter. If you want to get involved more, you can join our discord at https://discord.gg/2UjumQux
Ethan:
Nice.
Leo Liu (L2Y):
Information like daily GameFi data reports will be sent through our discord.
Ethan:
ok, I think it’s time to open up the floor for the community to ask questions. In this Q&A, there are no REWARDS for questions picked. Rewards will be issued for the Quiz, which is the next segment after this Q&A.
Community Q&A Segment
Q1 by Bull Runner 2049:
It’s common knowledge the price of a coin is on supply/demand. How to counter the decrease in price of HON in the medium term if it can be gained in game and there’s little incentive to BUY it? Won’t it crash like it did for Thetan Arena’s gTHC?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
So the cost to fully upgrade a 5 stars skins and 5 stars weapons with 3 5 stars equipment is 23250 $HON and 184.6 $WND. It will require much more $HON than you earn to upgrade a hero to the maximum.
Not to mention you will need more than 4 heros, as each of them have unique abilities and attributes in late game to be really good in both PVE and PVP.
Beyond that, it is also up to the WonderHero dev team to maintain a high level of In-game spending which is exactly what they have in plan. Right Ethan?
Ethan:
Of course. It was planned before we even started the private sale.
Q2 by nick nickolodeon:
Is this Farm Output and Spending cost of HON and WND are in automatic mode, adjusting depending on the market value of $HON and $WND? Or will this manually be done by the devs according to the market value of the tokens?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
As of now, the $WND farm output is dynamically adjusted to not exceed the total $WND available for reward. More players, lower stages means less $WND drop.
Q3 by Treky:
Has the probability of loot for HON and WND been changed in beta 4? If yes, how much? What is the probability of Hon loot actually?You talked about WND spending, is there only NFT upgrade for WND spending? Energy recharge maybe?
About earnings, it has been said around 4000 HON a month, so 3000 HON from quest and 1000 HON from loot? It’s about 33 HON per day … Is it a bit low considering the Maximum at 500 HON daily?
I’ve reached adventure 11 in 8 days. Is that not considered late game? How can the game live 6+ months? Are there new stories in the near future?
Leo Liu (L2Y):
I can not tell for sure the probability of loot for $HON and $WND has been changed as our team is still working on gathering the most accurate data from the game.
As of now, the only WND spending is to upgrade items.
Regarding your next question… good catch. We accidently halved the number of $HON income in the chart. I will be making an update to it. But regarding the final ROI, it is still accurate because the $HON income used is correct.
LV11 is really not considered “late game” for this game. When I think of late game is when I have all items maximized in a game like this,
at least for 4 of my main characters and I have cleared all maps and stages.
That’s what I think of late game with my past experience playing tens of games super similar like this. (Big ACG and japanese style mobile game fan here)
Ethan:
treky, you are awesome, for that, you get 1 WonderBox as a reward. Your question is actually helping the report and in turn helping the community.
Ethan:
OKAY, now it’s time for the quiz, there are 3 questions, the first person to answer it correctly gets 1 WonderBox!
Our WonderCaptains will pm you to get your details.
Are you guys ready?
AMA Quiz Segment
Q1. About the dilemma of spending small, earning small vs spending big and earning big, what is the percentage difference between earning small and earning big?
Raymond Novando:
200–300 percent.
Ethan:
BINGO. Yes, Raymond is correct! if you are short term, you only get X, but if you are long term, you can get 2–3x of that. Raymond has been a very very attentive person here.
Q2. As of $WND and $HON price data on Jan 13, 2021, if each brand new player starts the game fresh, how much $ worth of tokens can they earn? Leo mentioned earlier.
Renato:
50
Ethan:
BINGO. Renato is correct, as of the data from Jan 13 2022, based on beta 3, new players can get to earn $50 worth of tokens.
Q3. Based on data from Beta 3, How many % ROI can you expect for the first month and how many % ROI for the first year?
John Lee:
200% first month
2000% first year
Ethan:
YES. John answered it very accurately. 200% and 2000%
Ok guys, thank you for your participation. I hope today has been insightful for everyone
WonderNaleine:
Woooo! Thank you Ethan!
